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← T16 · Sector confirmation sizing

Historical study

T16 base-cost historical backtest

T16 produced a simulated historical return, but failed the finalized study's qualification gates. The result is research evidence, not an approved trading strategy.

Did not qualify for selectionAdded 2026-09-23Test period: 2017-01-03 to 2026-09-18

Measured outcome

Performance at a glance

Figures use the source study's definitions. “Not available” means the source does not support that metric.

Total return2,446.6%Change in simulated portfolio value over the test.
Annualized return39.6%Yearly compounded return; shown only when supported.
Worst drawdown33.6%Largest fall from an earlier portfolio high.
Sharpe ratio1.05Return relative to variability, under the source study's definition.
Trades12Completed simulated trades, when reported.

How this was tested

Assumptions and limits

Continuous TECL-and-cash simulation from $1,000 initial capital; 10 basis points transaction cost per side, next-eligible-open execution, and settled-cash limits. Sharpe uses the source study's zero-risk-free-rate definition.

  • The candidate did not pass the study's annual consistency, recent-period, and/or drawdown tests; see the technical evidence for exact failed gates.
  • The source market-data archive is owner-held and is not redistributed.
  • The historical period was used during strategy development; this is not an untouched holdout.
  • Historical simulation does not establish future performance or authorize paper or live trading.