Why it might work
Weak credit and bond signals may warn of stress outside technology prices.
Leveraged ETF research · Research strategy
T18 · Credit and rate risk brake
Applies a credit-market and rate-sensitive brake to an XLK-trend TECL allocation. The final study did not qualify this rule for selection.
TECL held or settled cash; XLK and other ETFs used only for signalsWeeklyLeveraged TECL fund; portfolio target at most 99%
The idea
How it works
Applies a credit-market and rate-sensitive brake to an XLK-trend TECL allocation.
When it invests
At weekly review, hold 99% TECL in a healthy XLK trend, halve exposure when either rate or credit risk flags, and move to cash when both flag.
When it exits
Exit daily below the XLK 200-day average; missing macro inputs do not imply a favorable signal.
What can go wrong
- TECL is leveraged and can lose value quickly, including while an exit signal waits for its next execution window.
- This candidate failed the study's qualification gates despite its simulated return.
Selected research result
T18 base-cost historical backtest
T18 produced a simulated historical return, but failed the finalized study's qualification gates. The result is research evidence, not an approved trading strategy.
Research history
Variants and recorded runs
Repeated and diagnostic runs remain accessible under their tested variant. No run is selected by highest return.
Continuous-Base1 result
T18 base-cost historical backtest
T18 produced a simulated historical return, but failed the finalized study's qualification gates. The result is research evidence, not an approved trading strategy.
Read result