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Leveraged ETF research · Research strategy

T12 · Lower-band rebound

Waits for XLK to fall below its lower volatility band and then recover above it. The final study did not qualify this rule for selection.

TECL held or settled cash; XLK and other ETFs used only for signalsDailyLeveraged TECL fund; portfolio target at most 99%

The idea

How it works

Waits for XLK to fall below its lower volatility band and then recover above it.

Why it might work

A confirmed return inside the band may signal the end of a short-term oversold move.

When it invests

Arm below the lower band while XLK remains above its 200-day average; buy TECL after a recovery within three sessions.

When it exits

Exit above the XLK 20-day average, below its 200-day average, or after ten holding sessions.

What can go wrong

  • TECL is leveraged and can lose value quickly, including while an exit signal waits for its next execution window.
  • This candidate failed the study's qualification gates despite its simulated return.

Selected research result

T12 base-cost historical backtest

T12 produced a simulated historical return, but failed the finalized study's qualification gates. The result is research evidence, not an approved trading strategy.

Total return112.3%Change in simulated portfolio value over the test.
Annualized return8.1%Yearly compounded return; shown only when supported.
Worst drawdown29.0%Largest fall from an earlier portfolio high.
Sharpe ratio0.49Return relative to variability, under the source study's definition.
Trades28Completed simulated trades, when reported.

Read assumptions and limitations →

Research history

Variants and recorded runs

Repeated and diagnostic runs remain accessible under their tested variant. No run is selected by highest return.

Continuous-Base1 result
Historical study

T12 base-cost historical backtest

T12 produced a simulated historical return, but failed the finalized study's qualification gates. The result is research evidence, not an approved trading strategy.

Archived 2026-09-23Total return: 112.3%
Read result