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Leveraged ETF research · Research strategy

T04 · Technology channel breakout

Looks for an XLK breakout above its prior 55-day channel while the long trend is positive. The final study did not qualify this rule for selection.

TECL held or settled cash; XLK and other ETFs used only for signalsDailyLeveraged TECL fund; portfolio target at most 99%

The idea

How it works

Looks for an XLK breakout above its prior 55-day channel while the long trend is positive.

Why it might work

A new high in an established trend may signal continued momentum.

When it invests

Target 99% TECL when XLK closes above its prior 55-day high and 200-day average.

When it exits

Move to cash when XLK closes below its prior 20-day low.

What can go wrong

  • TECL is leveraged and can lose value quickly, including while an exit signal waits for its next execution window.
  • This candidate failed the study's qualification gates despite its simulated return.

Selected research result

T04 base-cost historical backtest

T04 produced a simulated historical return, but failed the finalized study's qualification gates. The result is research evidence, not an approved trading strategy.

Total return692.5%Change in simulated portfolio value over the test.
Annualized return23.8%Yearly compounded return; shown only when supported.
Worst drawdown52.1%Largest fall from an earlier portfolio high.
Sharpe ratio0.72Return relative to variability, under the source study's definition.
Trades21Completed simulated trades, when reported.

Read assumptions and limitations →

Research history

Variants and recorded runs

Repeated and diagnostic runs remain accessible under their tested variant. No run is selected by highest return.

Continuous-Base1 result
Historical study

T04 base-cost historical backtest

T04 produced a simulated historical return, but failed the finalized study's qualification gates. The result is research evidence, not an approved trading strategy.

Archived 2026-09-23Total return: 692.5%
Read result