Why it might work
Sector leadership can shift, and a broad fund may provide a fallback.
ETF baseline rules · Research strategy
S06 · Semiconductor leadership rotation
Prefers the semiconductor fund when it leads QQQM; otherwise falls back to QQQM if its trend is healthy.
QQQM with SMH or SOXX, and settled cashWeeklyUnleveraged ETF exposure
The idea
How it works
Prefers the semiconductor fund when it leads QQQM; otherwise falls back to QQQM if its trend is healthy.
When it invests
At a weekly review, buy the semiconductor fund when its relative trend and return lead; otherwise buy eligible QQQM.
When it exits
Exit a held fund when it falls below its 100-day average; reconsider at the next weekly review.
What can go wrong
- Historical signals can reverse before a delayed order fills.
- Sector concentration and trend reversals can cause substantial losses.
Selected research result
S06 · QQQM + SMH · v3 base backtest
S06 on QQQM + SMH passed the repaired v3 study's historical qualification gates. This is a simulated research result, not live or paper authorization.
Research history
Variants and recorded runs
Repeated and diagnostic runs remain accessible under their tested variant. No run is selected by highest return.
QQQM SMH5 results
S06 · QQQM + SMH · v1 continuous backtest
This is the original v1 continuous simulation for S06 on QQQM + SMH. It remains accessible as research history; the later repaired v3 run is a separate result.
Read resultS06 · QQQM + SMH · v1 development backtest
This is the original v1 development simulation for S06 on QQQM + SMH. It remains accessible as research history; the later repaired v3 run is a separate result.
Read resultS06 · QQQM + SMH · v1 holdout backtest
This is the original v1 holdout simulation for S06 on QQQM + SMH. It remains accessible as research history; the later repaired v3 run is a separate result.
Read resultS06 · QQQM + SMH · v1 validation backtest
This is the original v1 validation simulation for S06 on QQQM + SMH. It remains accessible as research history; the later repaired v3 run is a separate result.
Read resultS06 · QQQM + SMH · v3 base backtest
S06 on QQQM + SMH passed the repaired v3 study's historical qualification gates. This is a simulated research result, not live or paper authorization.
Read resultQQQM SOXX5 results
S06 · QQQM + SOXX · v1 continuous backtest
This is the original v1 continuous simulation for S06 on QQQM + SOXX. It remains accessible as research history; the later repaired v3 run is a separate result.
Read resultS06 · QQQM + SOXX · v1 development backtest
This is the original v1 development simulation for S06 on QQQM + SOXX. It remains accessible as research history; the later repaired v3 run is a separate result.
Read resultS06 · QQQM + SOXX · v1 holdout backtest
This is the original v1 holdout simulation for S06 on QQQM + SOXX. It remains accessible as research history; the later repaired v3 run is a separate result.
Read resultS06 · QQQM + SOXX · v1 validation backtest
This is the original v1 validation simulation for S06 on QQQM + SOXX. It remains accessible as research history; the later repaired v3 run is a separate result.
Read resultS06 · QQQM + SOXX · v3 base backtest
S06 on QQQM + SOXX passed the repaired v3 study's historical qualification gates. This is a simulated research result, not live or paper authorization.
Read result