Why it might work
Sharp pullbacks in an established trend may rebound.
ETF baseline rules · Research strategy
S04 · Oversold rebound sleeves
Looks for short-term oversold readings inside a longer uptrend.
QQQM with SMH or SOXX, and settled cashDailyUnleveraged ETF exposure
The idea
How it works
Looks for short-term oversold readings inside a longer uptrend.
When it invests
Enter up to 49.5% in a fund when its two-day RSI is low and its 50-day average remains above the 200-day average.
When it exits
Exit after a high RSI reading, a break below the 200-day average, or ten holding sessions.
What can go wrong
- Historical signals can reverse before a delayed order fills.
- Sector concentration and trend reversals can cause substantial losses.
Selected research result
S04 · QQQM + SMH · v3 base backtest
S04 on QQQM + SMH passed the repaired v3 study's historical qualification gates. This is a simulated research result, not live or paper authorization.
Research history
Variants and recorded runs
Repeated and diagnostic runs remain accessible under their tested variant. No run is selected by highest return.
QQQM SMH5 results
S04 · QQQM + SMH · v1 continuous backtest
This is the original v1 continuous simulation for S04 on QQQM + SMH. It remains accessible as research history; the later repaired v3 run is a separate result.
Read resultS04 · QQQM + SMH · v1 development backtest
This is the original v1 development simulation for S04 on QQQM + SMH. It remains accessible as research history; the later repaired v3 run is a separate result.
Read resultS04 · QQQM + SMH · v1 holdout backtest
This is the original v1 holdout simulation for S04 on QQQM + SMH. It remains accessible as research history; the later repaired v3 run is a separate result.
Read resultS04 · QQQM + SMH · v1 validation backtest
This is the original v1 validation simulation for S04 on QQQM + SMH. It remains accessible as research history; the later repaired v3 run is a separate result.
Read resultS04 · QQQM + SMH · v3 base backtest
S04 on QQQM + SMH passed the repaired v3 study's historical qualification gates. This is a simulated research result, not live or paper authorization.
Read resultQQQM SOXX5 results
S04 · QQQM + SOXX · v1 continuous backtest
This is the original v1 continuous simulation for S04 on QQQM + SOXX. It remains accessible as research history; the later repaired v3 run is a separate result.
Read resultS04 · QQQM + SOXX · v1 development backtest
This is the original v1 development simulation for S04 on QQQM + SOXX. It remains accessible as research history; the later repaired v3 run is a separate result.
Read resultS04 · QQQM + SOXX · v1 holdout backtest
This is the original v1 holdout simulation for S04 on QQQM + SOXX. It remains accessible as research history; the later repaired v3 run is a separate result.
Read resultS04 · QQQM + SOXX · v1 validation backtest
This is the original v1 validation simulation for S04 on QQQM + SOXX. It remains accessible as research history; the later repaired v3 run is a separate result.
Read resultS04 · QQQM + SOXX · v3 base backtest
S04 on QQQM + SOXX passed the repaired v3 study's historical qualification gates. This is a simulated research result, not live or paper authorization.
Read result