Why it might work
Long-term uptrends with positive momentum may persist.
ETF baseline rules · Research strategy
S01 · Monthly momentum rotation
Selects the stronger eligible QQQM or semiconductor fund at monthly reviews.
QQQM with SMH or SOXX, and settled cashMonthlyUnleveraged ETF exposure
The idea
How it works
Selects the stronger eligible QQQM or semiconductor fund at monthly reviews.
When it invests
Buy the higher-scoring fund when its price is above its 200-day average and six-month return is positive.
When it exits
Exit below the 200-day average; a new allocation waits for the next monthly review.
What can go wrong
- Historical signals can reverse before a delayed order fills.
- Sector concentration and trend reversals can cause substantial losses.
Selected research result
S01 · QQQM + SMH · v3 base backtest
S01 on QQQM + SMH passed the repaired v3 study's historical qualification gates. This is a simulated research result, not live or paper authorization.
Research history
Variants and recorded runs
Repeated and diagnostic runs remain accessible under their tested variant. No run is selected by highest return.
QQQM SMH5 results
S01 · QQQM + SMH · v1 continuous backtest
This is the original v1 continuous simulation for S01 on QQQM + SMH. It remains accessible as research history; the later repaired v3 run is a separate result.
Read resultS01 · QQQM + SMH · v1 development backtest
This is the original v1 development simulation for S01 on QQQM + SMH. It remains accessible as research history; the later repaired v3 run is a separate result.
Read resultS01 · QQQM + SMH · v1 holdout backtest
This is the original v1 holdout simulation for S01 on QQQM + SMH. It remains accessible as research history; the later repaired v3 run is a separate result.
Read resultS01 · QQQM + SMH · v1 validation backtest
This is the original v1 validation simulation for S01 on QQQM + SMH. It remains accessible as research history; the later repaired v3 run is a separate result.
Read resultS01 · QQQM + SMH · v3 base backtest
S01 on QQQM + SMH passed the repaired v3 study's historical qualification gates. This is a simulated research result, not live or paper authorization.
Read resultQQQM SOXX5 results
S01 · QQQM + SOXX · v1 continuous backtest
This is the original v1 continuous simulation for S01 on QQQM + SOXX. It remains accessible as research history; the later repaired v3 run is a separate result.
Read resultS01 · QQQM + SOXX · v1 development backtest
This is the original v1 development simulation for S01 on QQQM + SOXX. It remains accessible as research history; the later repaired v3 run is a separate result.
Read resultS01 · QQQM + SOXX · v1 holdout backtest
This is the original v1 holdout simulation for S01 on QQQM + SOXX. It remains accessible as research history; the later repaired v3 run is a separate result.
Read resultS01 · QQQM + SOXX · v1 validation backtest
This is the original v1 validation simulation for S01 on QQQM + SOXX. It remains accessible as research history; the later repaired v3 run is a separate result.
Read resultS01 · QQQM + SOXX · v3 base backtest
S01 on QQQM + SOXX passed the repaired v3 study's historical qualification gates. This is a simulated research result, not live or paper authorization.
Read result