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Leveraged ETF research · Research strategy

L14 · Downside-volatility allocation

Scales a broad and semiconductor mix using recent negative-return volatility.

TQQQ or SPXL, SOXL, and settled cash; QQQ or SPY and SOXX are signal proxiesWeeklyLeveraged ETF exposure

The idea

How it works

Scales a broad and semiconductor mix using recent negative-return volatility.

Why it might work

Responding to downside instability may preserve upside participation in calmer periods.

When it invests

At weekly reviews, start near 60% broad and 40% sector for eligible proxies, then scale toward a 25% downside-volatility target.

When it exits

Exit a sleeve below its proxy's 200-day average.

What can go wrong

  • Historical signals can reverse before a delayed order fills.
  • Leveraged fund losses can be large and fast.

Selected research result

L14 · TQQQ + SOXL · v3 base backtest

L14 on TQQQ + SOXL passed the repaired v3 study's historical qualification gates. This is a simulated research result, not live or paper authorization.

Total return217.1%Change in simulated portfolio value over the test.
Annualized return46.9%Yearly compounded return; shown only when supported.
Worst drawdown30.1%Largest fall from an earlier portfolio high.
Sharpe ratio1.21Return relative to variability, under the source study's definition.
Trades9Completed simulated trades, when reported.

Read assumptions and limitations →

Research history

Variants and recorded runs

Repeated and diagnostic runs remain accessible under their tested variant. No run is selected by highest return.

SPXL SOXL1 result
TQQQ SOXL1 result