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Unleveraged ETF research · Research strategy

A07 · Correlation-aware trend mix

Holds trending QQQM and SMH but cuts the weaker sleeve when their returns move too closely together.

QQQM, SMH, and settled cashWeeklyUnleveraged ETF exposure

The idea

How it works

Holds trending QQQM and SMH but cuts the weaker sleeve when their returns move too closely together.

Why it might work

Reducing duplicate exposure may avoid paying for two highly similar risks.

When it invests

At weekly reviews, allocate up to 49.5% to each eligible fund; halve the weaker sleeve when 60-day correlation exceeds the threshold.

When it exits

Exit a fund below its 200-day average.

What can go wrong

  • Historical signals can reverse before a delayed order fills.
  • Sector concentration and trend reversals can cause substantial losses.

Selected research result

A07 · QQQM + SMH · v3 base backtest

A07 on QQQM + SMH passed the repaired v3 study's historical qualification gates. This is a simulated research result, not live or paper authorization.

Total return113.4%Change in simulated portfolio value over the test.
Annualized return28.8%Yearly compounded return; shown only when supported.
Worst drawdown16.8%Largest fall from an earlier portfolio high.
Sharpe ratio1.39Return relative to variability, under the source study's definition.
Trades6Completed simulated trades, when reported.

Read assumptions and limitations →

Research history

Variants and recorded runs

Repeated and diagnostic runs remain accessible under their tested variant. No run is selected by highest return.

QQQM SMH1 result