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Unleveraged ETF research · Research strategy

A06 · Confirmed pullback rebound

Waits for an oversold setup in an uptrend and then requires a rebound confirmation.

QQQM, SMH, and settled cashDailyUnleveraged ETF exposure

The idea

How it works

Waits for an oversold setup in an uptrend and then requires a rebound confirmation.

Why it might work

Requiring a recovery close may avoid some falling-price entries.

When it invests

Arm an oversold QQQM or SMH sleeve in a healthy trend; enter on a close above the previous high within the confirmation window.

When it exits

Exit on a high RSI reading, a break below the 50-day average, or ten holding sessions.

What can go wrong

  • Historical signals can reverse before a delayed order fills.
  • Sector concentration and trend reversals can cause substantial losses.

Selected research result

A06 · QQQM + SMH · v3 base backtest

A06 on QQQM + SMH failed the repaired v3 study's historical qualification gates. This is a simulated research result, not live or paper authorization.

Total return-15.0%Change in simulated portfolio value over the test.
Annualized return-5.3%Yearly compounded return; shown only when supported.
Worst drawdown15.6%Largest fall from an earlier portfolio high.
Sharpe ratio-1.07Return relative to variability, under the source study's definition.
Trades35Completed simulated trades, when reported.

Read assumptions and limitations →

Research history

Variants and recorded runs

Repeated and diagnostic runs remain accessible under their tested variant. No run is selected by highest return.

QQQM SMH1 result